The headline that caught attention this week stated, “Don’t forget the vegans when planning for the apocalypse.” While it might be easy to poke fun, the underlying message comes from Tim Lang, a prominent food policy expert and professor emeritus at City St George’s, University of London. Lang has dedicated the past two years to writing a report titled ‘Just in Case’ for the National Preparedness Commission, established after Covid highlighted the UK’s lack of pandemic preparedness.

Lang recently spoke at a book festival, highlighting potential disruptions to our food supply chains, a reality we experienced first-hand in 2020. The initial panic buying led to shortages of toilet paper, pasta, rice, and various essentials.

His critical argument asserts that if a catastrophic event, such as a missile strike from Vladimir Putin, were to occur, we might have to rely on emergency ration packs for an extended period. In times of shock, people gravitate toward familiar and comforting foods. Surprisingly, even during the Second World War, provisions were made for vegetarians.

The crux of Lang’s message often got overshadowed by humorous jabs at veganism. He warns that the threats to Britain’s food supply have never been more pronounced, and the system itself is increasingly fragile.

Recent events underscore this fragility. Notably, it has been a month since hackers targeted Marks and Spencer’s IT system, causing ongoing disruptions to their online orders. M&S commands only 4% of the grocery market, and if a similar breach had occurred at Tesco — which holds a market share of 28% — the consequences could have been far worse.

There are often hidden vulnerabilities in our food supply that we overlook. The illusion of having an abundance of choices in supermarkets leads to a false sense of security regarding food availability.

The reality, however, is that our food supply chain is not only complex but also quite delicate. For instance, the Department for Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) recently drew attention to the reliance on calcium carbonate in flour production.

In the UK, it is a requirement to fortify non-wholemeal flour with calcium carbonate, a crucial ingredient that helps prevent deficiencies, notably in calcium, which can lead to serious health issues like rickets in children.

Historically, UK flour millers sourced calcium carbonate from a quarry in Steeple Morden, Cambridgeshire. However, this source is no longer deemed adequate for food use, forcing the entire UK flour industry to depend on a single quarry in Orgon, France, owned by a Swiss company, Omya.

Defra has raised alarms over the implications of such reliance. Approximately a third of all supermarket products in the UK contain flour with calcium carbonate.

Questions arise: What if the Channel Tunnel is incapacitated? Or if French truck drivers initiate a strike? What if the quarry itself encounters financial issues?

Most of the UK’s food imports funnel through just two ports: Felixstowe and Dover, with operations at these locations hinging on private security measures to ensure the delivery of various goods, including calcium carbonate.

According to a report from earlier this year, bread holds a significant place in the UK diet with a short shelf life; any disruptions could quickly affect public confidence in the food system.

Calcium carbonate represents just a small part of a highly intricate system that ensures food reaches consumers. Numerous other food products similarly depend on limited suppliers due to industry consolidation aimed at efficiency.

This precariousness is further compounded by supermarkets reducing their storage facilities in favor of just-in-time inventory systems, leading to a lack of substantial stockrooms for large retailers.

In contrast, Switzerland, known for its pragmatic approach, maintains a central stock of three months’ worth of food. Lang argues that relying solely on either government or individual households for food security is misguided. Large governmental structures often lack agility, while households lack the capacity for cost-effective storage. Covid demonstrated that community cooperation can be effective, suggesting a model where neighborhoods could stockpile food collectively via community groups.

As we face ongoing uncertainties in food supply chains, it may be prudent to invest in a few extra non-perishable items, such as lentils, to prepare for potential disruptions.